8.5 Risk profile

A major change in PZU Group risk profile took place in 2015 and was related to consolidation of Alior Bank and disclosing the acquired loan and deposit portfolio in the statement of financial position. As a result, interest rate risk and credit risk related to these portfolios became significant risk components.

PZU Group is exposed to the following main types of risk: actuarial risk, market risk (with emphasis on interest rate risk), credit risk, concentration risk, operational risk and non-compliance risk.

The key event, from the point of view of the risk profile of PZU Group, was the integration of the risk management process in PZU Group's insurance companies, as well as the implementation of Solvency II requirements in these companies.

8.5.1 Actuarial risk (non-life and life insurance)

Actuarial risk – a possibility of loss or unfavorable change in the value of liabilities that can result from insurance contracts and insurance guarantee agreements, from incorrect assumptions regarding measurement and recognition of technical provisions.

Actuarial risk includes:

  Non-life insurance Life insurance
Longevity risk – a possibility of loss or unfavorable change of insurance liabilities resulting from changes in the level, trend or volatility of the mortality factor if its increase results in a growth of insurance liabilities, X X
Cost risk – a possibility of loss or unfavorable change in the amount of insurance liabilities resulting from changes in the level, trend or volatility of costs incurred for insurance or reinsurance contract management. X X
Laps Risk – a risk of loss or unfavorable change in the amount of insurance liabilities resulting from changes in the level, trend or volatility of indicators, including withdrawal from contracts, termination or buyout of policies. X X
Catastrophe risk – a possibility of loss or unfavorable change in the value of insurance liabilities resulting from significant uncertainty of the assumptions regarding measurement and technical provisions for extreme or exceptional events. X X
Premium risk – a risk of improper estimation of tariff rates and the possibility of deviation from the expected written premium levels, resulting from volatility of occurrence, frequency and scale of insured events. X N/A
Provision risk – a risk of improper estimation of the level of technical provisions, as well as the possibility of fluctuations in the actual damage within the extent of its statistical average due to the stochastic nature of future claim payments. X N/A
Annuity revision risk – a risk of loss or unfavorable change in the value of insurance liabilities resulting from changes in the level, trend or volatility of annuity revision indicators related to changes in the legal environment or the health of the insured. X N/A
Mortality risk – a possibility of loss or unfavorable change of insurance liabilities resulting from changes in the level, trend or volatility of the mortality factor if its increase results in a growth of insurance liabilities, N/A X
Disability risk – a risk of loss or unfavorable change of insurance liabilities resulting from changes in the level, trend or volatility of the disability factor and occurrence of illnesses/diseases. N/A X

PZU Group manages actuarial risk i.a. by way of:

  • calculating and monitoring the adequacy of technical provisions;
  • tariff strategy and monitoring of the current estimates and evaluation of premium adequacy;
  • underwriting;
  • reinsurance.

Calculation and monitoring of adequacy of technical provisions

PZU Group manages the adequacy risk of technical provisions through application of appropriate calculation technology and control of processes related to determining of provisions. The provisioning policy is based on:

  • prudent approach to determining technical provisions,
  • continuity principle, consisting in the changelessness of the methods of technical provisioning, provided there are no significant circumstances which justify introduction of changes.

For non-life insurance, the level of technical provisions is evaluated once a month and in specific circumstances (making a payment, obtaining new information from liquidators or lawyers) their amount is updated. History of development and payments per balance sheet year is used to analyze the amount of technical provisions. The analysis results in assessment of precision of actuarial methods.

For life insurance products, public statistics (life expectancy tables) made available by specialized entities supported by historic data derived from insurance portfolios provide the main source of data to estimate the projected frequency of claims. Periodic statistical analyzes of claims incidence are made at the level of product groups, individual insurance portfolios and well-defined homogeneous risk groups. These analyzes allow determining relative frequency of claims compared to public statistics. The use of appropriate statistical methods allows to determine the significance of the determined statistics. If necessary, determined appropriate security charges are applied when creating technical provisions and risk evaluation.

Estimating of technical provisions in PZU Group is supervised by main actuaries.

Tariff strategy, monitoring of current estimates and premium adequacy assessment

The purpose of the tariff policy is to ensure an adequate premium level, sufficient to cover the existing and future liabilities arising on concluded policies and expenses. Along with developing a tariff, simulations are carried out with regard to the projected insurance profit/loss in subsequent years. Additionally, regular premium adequacy and portfolio yield studies are regularly carried out for each insurance type based on, among others, evaluation of the technical result on a product for a given financial year. Frequency of analyzes is adjusted to the materiality of the product and possible result fluctuation. If the course of insurance is unfavorable, activities are undertaken to restore a defined profitability level, involving adjusting premium tariffs or the insured risk profile through modifying general insurance terms.

Underwriting

Regarding corporate customers and SME, a separate underwriting process independent from the sales function is carried out. The process of selling insurance for corporate customers is preceded with an analysis and assessment of risk carried out by dedicated underwriting teams. The underwriting process includes a three-stage risk acceptance system depending on competency scopes and limits granted.

Reinsurance

The objective of the reinsurance program in PZU Group in non-life insurance is to secure its core business by mitigation of catastrophic risk that may negatively impact the financial standing of PZU Group. The task is performed in the form of concluding obligatory contracts with additional facultative reinsurance

PZU Group limits its risk i.a. by way of:

  • non-proportional excess of loss treaties which protect the portfolios against catastrophic losses (e.g. flood, hurricane);
  • non-proportional excess of loss treaties which protect property, technical, marine, aviation, TPL and MTPL portfolios against the effects of large single losses;
  • proportional treaties which protects the financial insurance portfolio.

Optimization of the reinsurance program in terms of protection against catastrophic claims is based on the results of internal analyses and uses third-party models.

8.5.1.1 Exposure to insurance risk in non-life products

Primary cost ratios in non-life insurance 1 January – 31 December 2015 1 January – 31 December 2014
Expense ratio 29.96% 28.94%
Claims ratio, net of reinsurance 63.82% 66.39%
Reinsurer’s retention ratio 3.54% 3.84%
Combined ratio 93.78% 95.32%

The expense ratio is calculated by dividing the total acquisition costs, administrative expenses, reinsurance commissions and share in reinsurers’ profits by the net premiums earned.

The claims ratio net of reinsurance is calculated by dividing claims and the net change in technical provisions by the net premiums earned.

The reinsurer's retention ratio is calculated by dividing a reinsurer’s share in gross written premiums by the gross written premiums.

Combined ratio is defined as the ratio of the total of acquisition costs, administrative expenses, reinsurance commissions and share in reinsurers’ profits, claims and changes in net technical provisions to the net earned premiums.

The following tables present development of technical provisions and payments in subsequent financial years.

Claims development in direct property and personal insurance, gross (by financial year) 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Provision at the end of the financial year 7,540,570 7,898,097 8,292,721 8,698,661 9,380,501 9,870,123 10,989,024 11,782,567 13,311,566 13,162,561
The provision and the total claim payments (from the end of the first financial year to the end of the current financial year, excluding payments made before the end of the first financial year):                    
- calculated one year later 7,300,086 7,697,588 8,382,022 8,560,746 9,680,960 10,298,173 11,285,586 12,241,486 13,031,673  
- calculated two years later 7,286,968 7,833,155 8,409,631 8,855,827 10,192,492 10,752,650 11,958,413 12,179,921    
- calculated three years later 7,436,865 7,852,001 8,757,918 9,346,313 10,718,813 11,589,871 11,973,179      
- calculated four years later 7,443,246 8,140,607 9,215,412 9,874,432 11,574,390 11,738,383        
- calculated five years later 7,661,124 8,599,531 9,723,948 10,712,439 11,735,090          
- calculated six years later 8,102,772 9,076,948 10,558,365 10,875,392            
- calculated seven years later 8,523,330 9,842,325 10,747,125              
- calculated eight years later 9,224,422 10,027,933                
- calculated nine years later 9,416,220                  
Total provision and claim payments (from the end of the first financial year to the end of the current financial year, excluding payments made before the end of the first financial year) 9,416,220 10,027,933 10,747,125 10,875,392 11,735,090 11,738,383 11,973,179 12,179,921 13,031,673  
The total claim payments (from the end of the first financial year to the end of the current financial year, excluding payments made before the end of the first financial year) 4,684,166 4,835,703 4,996,462 4,628,205 4,904,361 4,169,497 3,675,277 2,957,342 2,237,974  
Provision recognized in the statement of financial positions 4,732,054 5,192,230 5,750,663 6,247,187 6,830,729 7,568,886 8,297,902 9,222,579 10,793,699  
Difference between the first year provision and the run-off result estimated at the end of reporting year (1,875,650) (2,129,836) (2,454,404) (2,176,731) (2,354,589) (1,868,260) (984,155) (397,354) 279,893  
The above difference as a percentage of the first year provision -25% -27% -30% -25% -25% -19% -9% -3% 2%  

Claims development in direct property and personal insurance, net of reinsurance (by financial year) 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Provision at the end of the financial year 6,356,239 6,916,099 7,433,410 7,972,938 8,639,044 9,304,621 10,413,376 11,453,315 12,813,985 12,652,743
The provision and the total claim payments (from the end of the first financial year to the end of the current financial year, excluding payments made before the end of the first financial year):                    
- calculated one year later 6,145,931 6,790,822 7,568,099 7,843,760 8,838,330 9,731,139 10,722,247 11,787,321 12,524,663  
- calculated two years later 6,201,722 6,968,715 7,597,785 8,091,605 9,344,945 10,185,213 11,282,329 11,703,615    
- calculated three years later 6,396,354 6,991,045 7,909,625 8,558,410 9,872,521 10,946,654 11,277,787      
- calculated four years later 6,405,273 7,246,292 8,343,715 9,106,236 10,672,033 11,071,268        
- calculated five years later 6,589,073 7,683,193 8,874,588 9,891,566 10,817,590          
- calculated six years later 7,008,662 8,189,106 9,656,518 10,037,345            
- calculated seven years later 7,457,627 8,904,032 9,826,508              
- calculated eight years later 8,108,651 9,070,206                
- calculated nine years later 8,280,359                  
Total provision and claim payments (from the end of the first financial year to the end of the current financial year, excluding payments made before the end of the first financial year) 8,280,359 9,070,206 9,826,508 10,037,345 10,817,590 11,071,268 11,277,787 11,703,615 12,524,663  
The total claim payments (from the end of the first financial year to the end of the current financial year, excluding payments made before the end of the first financial year) 3,745,809 4,075,856 4,281,212 3,996,811 4,211,923 3,760,879 3,308,752 2,858,444 2,176,622  
Provision recognized in the statement of financial positions 4,534,550 4,994,350 5,545,296 6,040,534 6,605,667 7,310,389 7,969,035 8,845,171 10,348,041  
Difference between the first year provision and the run-off result estimated at the end of reporting year (1,924,120) (2,154,107) (2,393,098) (2,064,407) (2,178,546) (1,766,647) (864,411) (250,300) 289,322  
The above difference as a percentage of the first year provision -30% -31% -32% -26% -25% -19% -8% -2% 2%  

Increase in the negative value of the run-off result in 2015 is mainly the result of identifying the claims relating to personal claims for previous years claims.

Motor insurance products (MTPL and own damage) account for the major part of PZU Group portfolio. Both types of insurances are usually concluded for a year, during which a claim must occur to be covered. The own damage insurance is based on a claim-made principle, so it is not a source of uncertainty. It is unlike MTPL, which is an occurrence insurance (there is up to 30 years for making a claim). The amount of property claims is particularly sensitive to the number of court claims made and court decisions regarding individual cases. In case of MTPL contracts, new types of claims emerge along with additional deferred claims, which significantly add to the complexity of estimating the technical provisions amount.

Risk concentration in non-life insurance

Due to the climatic conditions of the region where PZU Group operates, the concentration risk may occur in the case of catastrophic damage such as floods or hurricanes. For this reason, presented below is catastrophic damage PZU Group is exposed to.

Depending on the percentage of the value of paid out flood and hurricane damage in the total value of claims paid in the period in which the catastrophic events occurred, i.e. the floods or hurricanes, three groups of regions have been distinguished. Next, relevant insurance sums and the number of policies was defined for each region, thus arriving at flood and hurricane risk concentration.

Risk concentration in non-life insurance – flood claims exposure

Risk concentration in non-life insurance – flood claims exposure as at 31 December 2015   Sum insured Total
    0-200 thousand PLN 200-500 thousand PLN 500-1 ,000 thousand PLN 1,000-2,000 thousand PLN over 2,000 thousand PLN  
A group regions – where flood claims constitute 0 to 5% of total claims  Sum insured 6.5% 10.0% 4.3% 1.9% 9.8% 32.5%
Number of policies 32.2% 10.3% 2.1% 0.5% 0.3% 45.4%
B group regions – where flood claims constitute 5 to 15% of total claims  Sum insured 1.1% 1.5% 0.8% 0.6% 7.1% 11.1%
Number of policies 5.8% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 8.1%
C group regions – where flood claims constitute over 15% of total claims  Sum insured 6.4% 10.3% 3.9% 2.1% 33.7% 56.4%
Number of policies 33.1% 10.6% 1.9% 0.5% 0.4% 46.5%
Total  Sum insured 14.0% 21.8% 9.0% 4.6% 50.6% 100.0%
Number of policies 71.1% 22.5% 4.4% 1.1% 0.9% 100.0%

Risk concentration in non-life insurance – flood claims exposure as at 31 December 2014   Sum insured Total
    0-200 thousand PLN 200-500 thousand PLN 500-1 ,000 thousand PLN 1,000-2 ,000 thousand PLN over 2,000 thousand PLN  
A group regions – where flood claims constitute 0 to 5% of total claims  Sum insured 3.8% 6.6% 2.5% 1.2% 12.4% 26.5%
Number of policies 18.6% 5.6% 1.2% 0.3% 0.3% 26.0%
B group regions – where flood claims constitute 5 to 15% of total claims  Sum insured 2.5% 2.8% 1.1% 0.9% 6.4% 13.7%
Number of policies 12.3% 2.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0%
C group regions – where flood claims constitute over 15% of total claims  Sum insured 8.2% 12.9% 4.9% 2.4% 31.4% 59.8%
Number of policies 41.8% 13.0% 2.3% 0.5% 0.4% 58.0%
Total  Sum insured 14.5% 22.3% 8.5% 4.5% 50.2% 100.0%
Number of policies 72.7% 21.4% 4.0% 1.0% 0.9% 100.0%

Risk concentration in property and personal insurance - hurricane claims exposure

Risk concentration in non-life insurance – hurricane claims exposure as at 31 December 2015   Sum insured Total
    0-200 thousand PLN 200-500 thousand PLN 500-1 ,000 thousand PLN 1,000-2 ,000 thousand PLN over 2,000 thousand PLN  
A group regions – where hurricane claims constitute 0 to 5% of total claims  Sum insured 6.2% 9.9% 4.3% 2.0% 14.9% 37.3%
Number of policies 32.9% 10.2% 2.0% 0.5% 0.3% 45.9%
B group regions – where hurricane claims constitute 5 to 15% of total claims  Sum insured 4.6% 8.0% 3.1% 1.6% 25.5% 42.8%
Number of policies 23.1% 8.2% 1.5% 0.4% 0.6% 33.8%
C group regions – where hurricane claims constitute over 15% of total claims  Sum insured 2.9% 4.0% 1.7% 1.0% 10.3% 19.9%
Number of policies 15.1% 4.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 20.3%
Total  Sum insured 13.7% 21.9% 9.1% 4.6% 50.7% 100.0%
Number of policies 71.1% 22.5% 4.3% 1.1% 1.0% 100.0%

Risk concentration in non-life insurance – hurricane claims exposure as at 31 December 2014   Sum insured Total
    0-200 thousand PLN 200-500 thousand PLN 500-1 ,000 thousand PLN 1,000-2 ,000 thousand PLN over 2,000 thousand PLN  
A group regions – where hurricane claims constitute 0 to 5% of total claims  Sum insured 8.9% 15.6% 6.0% 3.0% 38.3% 71.8%
Number of policies 46.3% 14.5% 2.8% 0.7% 0.8% 65.1%
B group regions – where hurricane claims constitute 5 to 15% of total claims  Sum insured 4.7% 5.8% 2.2% 1.3% 9.8% 23.8%
Number of policies 22.8% 5.9% 1.0% 0.3% 0.3% 30.3%
C group regions – where hurricane claims constitute over 15% of total claims  Sum insured 0.7% 0.9% 0.3% 0.2% 2.3% 4.4%
Number of policies 3.5% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 4.6%
Total  Sum insured 14.3% 22.3% 8.5% 4.5% 50.4% 100.0%
Number of policies 72.6% 21.3% 4.0% 1.0% 1.1% 100.0%

Transfer of risk to the areas of a higher percentage of hurricane claims results from a larger number of events subject to insurance caused by hurricanes in 2015 versus the events of 2014.

Risk concentration in non-life insurance: general liability insurance

Risk concentration in property and casualty general liability insurance measured by the gross written premium amount is presented sorted by guarantee amount and type of coverage.

Gross written premium in non-life insurance – TPL as at 31 December 2015 Sum insured Total
  0-200 thousand PLN 200-500 thousand PLN 500-1 ,000 thousand PLN 1,000-2 ,000 thousand PLN over 2,000 thousand PLN  
General TPL in personal life and other 18.4% 3.4% 2.3% 2.9% 12.7% 39.7%
Medical TPL 0.5% 1.2% 1.1% 6.0% 26.3% 35.1%
Professional TPL except from medical and agricultural (legal, consulting, etc.) 8.0% 3.6% 1.7% 2.1% 4.4% 19.8%
TPL of farmers and their movable property 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.3% 0.0% 5.3%
Product TPL 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%
Total 26.9% 8.2% 5.1% 16.3% 43.5% 100.0%

Gross written premium in non-life insurance – TPL as at 31 December 2014 Sum insured Total
  0-200 thousand PLN 200-500 thousand PLN 500-1 ,000 thousand PLN 1,000-2 ,000 thousand PLN over 2,000 thousand PLN  
General TPL in personal life and other 15.5% 3.4% 2.5% 2.9% 14.1% 38.4%
Medical TPL 0.6% 1.0% 1.2% 6.4% 33.1% 42.3%
Professional TPL except from medical and agricultural (legal, consulting, etc.) 5.5% 2.9% 1.3% 1.5% 3.7% 14.9%
TPL of farmers and their movable property 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.3% 0.0% 4.3%
Product TPL 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%
Total 21.6% 7.3% 5.0% 15.1% 51.0% 100.0%

Capitalized annuity amount

The below results do not take into account the impact of changes in valuation of deposits taken into consideration in the calculation of the provision value.

Gross change in the assumptions for the provision for capitalized value of annuities amount in non-life insurance Effect of change in the assumptions on net financial profit/loss Effect of changes in assumptions on equity
  31 December 2015 31 December 2014 31 December 2015 31 December 2014
Technical rate – increase by 0.5 p.p. 426,594 426,244 426,594 426,244
Technical rate – decrease by 1.0 p.p. (1,103,521) (1,101,344) (1,103,521) (1,101,344)
Mortality at 110% of the currently assumed rate 131,619 132,268 131,619 132,268
Mortality at 90% of the currently assumed rate (146,720) (147,984) (146,720) (147,984)

Change in the assumptions for the provision for capitalized value of annuities amount – net of reinsurance in property and personal insurance Effect of change in the assumptions on net financial profit/loss Effect of changes in assumptions on equity
  31 December 2015 31 December 2014 31 December 2015 31 December 2014
Technical rate – increase by 0.5 p.p. 411,837 415,451 411,837 415,451
Technical rate – decrease by 1.0 p.p. (1,063,628) (1,073,704) (1,063,628) (1,073,704)
Mortality at 110% of the currently assumed rate 127,435 128,940 127,435 128,940
Mortality at 90% of the currently assumed rate (142,011) (144,263) (142,011) (144,263)

8.5.1.2 Exposure to insurance risk in life products

PZU Group has not presented information on the development of claims in life insurance due to the fact that the uncertainty regarding amounts and claim payment periods usually stops within one year.

Risk concentration in this group is related to the concentration of contracts or sums insured. For traditional individual insurance products, where risk of concentration is related to occurrence probability of the covered event or to potential claims amounts arising on a single event, risk assessment is based on case by case approach. The assessment includes both medical risk and – in justified cases – financial risk. Such an approach allows selection of risks (evaluation of an individual concluding an insurance contract) and defining of the maximum acceptable risk level.

In group products, concentration risk occurrence is limited by the contract portfolio size. This allows for significant reduction of the level of distraction resulting from random insurance course. Additionally, the form of a contract, under which all the

insured have the same sum insured and coverage is a material risk-mitigating factor. Therefore, some risks are not concentrated within a portfolio.

In the case of group insurance contracts, allowing adjusting of coverage at the level of each group of contracts, a simplified risk assessment is applied. It is carried out on the basis of information about the industry of a given employer, assuming appropriate participation limits of the insured in respect of all persons employed in the workplace. In such cases, premium and charges are based on statistical analyzes carried out in relation to the frequency of claims on the level of defined homogeneous risk groups, including relative frequency of events compared to public statistics.

It should be noted that for most contracts the claim amount is clearly defined in the contract. Therefore, compared to typical non-life insurance contracts, the concentration risk decreases, i.e. occurrence of single events necessitating large claims is relatively low.

Annuity insurance products in life insurance

Changes in the annuity insurance in life insurance portfolio Effect of change in the assumptions on net financial profit/loss Effect of changes in assumptions on equity
  31 December 2015 31 December 2014 31 December 2015 31 December 2014
Technical interest rate – decrease by 1.0 p.p. (31,501) (34,259) (31,501) (34,259)
Mortality at 90% of the currently assumed rate (11,704) (12,318) (11,704) (12,318)

Assumptions regarding liabilities arising from insurance and investment contracts with DPF in life insurance excluding annuity insurance

Change in assumptions regarding provisions for insurance and investment contracts with DPF in life insurance excluding annuity products Effect of change in the assumptions on net financial profit/loss Effect of changes in assumptions on equity
  31 December 2015 31 December 2014 31 December 2015 31 December 2014
Technical interest rate – decrease by 1.0 p.p. (2,157,032) (2,194,319) (2,157,032) (2,194,319)
Mortality at 110% of the currently assumed rate (901,924) (922,805) (901,924) (922,805)
110% morbidity and accident rate (178,931) (187,082) (178,931) (187,082)

Effects of customers’ withdrawing from life insurance products

Calculation of technical provisions for life insurance does not include the risk of the insured's withdrawal. Below please find the effects of hypothetical withdrawal of 10% of total customers with life insurance products in PZU Życie.

Item in financial statements 31 December 2015 31 December 2014
Change in technical provisions 2,116,763 2,093,927
Claims and benefits paid (803,356) (782,563)
Change in deferred acquisition costs (7,002) (6,256)
Gross financial profit/loss 1,306,406 1,305,109
Net financial profit/loss 1,058,189 1,057,138
Equity 1,058,189 1,057,138

8.5.2 Market risk

Market risk is a risk of a loss or an unfavorable change in the financial position, resulting directly or indirectly from changes in the level or volatility of market prices of assets, credit spread, value of liabilities and financial instruments.

Market risk in PZU Group includes:

  • share price risk – a possibility of incurring a loss following changes in the value of assets, liabilities and financial instruments as a result of changes in market share prices or their volatility;
  • unlisted share price – a possibility of incurring a loss following changes in the value of unlisted shares;
  • property price risk – a possibility of incurring a loss following changes in the value of assets, liabilities and financial instruments as a result of changes in market prices or their volatility;
  • goods price risk – a possibility of incurring a loss following changes in the value of assets, liabilities and financial instruments as a result of changes in market prices or their volatility;
  • inflation risk – a possibility of incurring a loss resulting from inflation, in particular inflation of goods and services prices, as well as expectations regarding the future inflation level which impact valuation of assets and liabilities;
  • liquidity risk – the inability to realize investments and other assets with no impact on their market prices in order to settle one's financial liabilities when they fall due;
  • interest rate risk – a possibility of incurring a loss following changes in the value of financial instruments or assets and fluctuations in the present value of projected cash flows on liabilities following changes in term of structure of market interest rates or volatility of these risk-free rates;
  • basis risk – a possibility to incur a loss following changes in the value of financial instruments or assets and fluctuations in the present value of projected cash flows on liabilities following changes in term structure of market interest rate spreads as compared to risk-free rates or volatility of these spreads – with the exception of credit spreads;
  • currency risk – a possibility of incurring a loss following changes in the value of assets, liabilities and financial instruments as a result of changes in exchange rates or their volatility.
  • credit spread risk – the possibility of incurring losses due to changes in the value of assets, liabilities and financial instruments arising from changes in the level of credit spreads with regard to the time structure debt instruments issued by the State Treasury or their volatility;
  • concentration risk – a risk arising from lack of diversification in the portfolio of assets or from high exposure to counterparty risk including a single issuer of securities or a group of related issuers.

Concentration risk and credit spread risk are regarded as an integral part of market risk when measuring risk for the purpose of evaluating a risk profile, risk tolerance, and reporting indicators of market risk. However, the process of managing these risks is different in nature than in case of other subcategories of market risk, and is described in Note 8.5.3 along with the process of managing the counterparty risk.

Market risk in PZU Group originates from three key sources:

  • matching of assets and liabilities (ALM portfolio);
  • strategic allocation of assets, i.e. determining an optimum medium-term structure of assets (AA portfolios);
  • Alior Bank bank activity – as the result of which PZU Group significantly increased exposure to interest rate risk and credit risk).

The investment activity in the PZU Group entities is regulated in a number of documents approved by the Supervisory Boards, the Management Boards and dedicated Committees.

Departments of risk take part in the risk identification process, measure those risks, monitor and report them. Market risk is measured by the Value at Risk method. The total market risk value is determined by aggregated amounts of individual risks based on a pre-defined correlation matrix. In order to effectively manage market risk, limits in a form of capital amounts allocated to each market risk, as well as limits for separate market risk factors are determined.

In Alior Bank the exposure to market and liquidity risk is mitigated by the system of periodically updated limits introduced by the resolution of the Supervisory Board or the Management Board, which cover all measures of risk. In Alior Bank there are three types of limits which differ in scope and functioning method – basic, supplementary and stress-test limits. The market risk management focuses on potential changes in economic result.

Market risk exposure

Carrying amount as at 31 December 2015 Note Risk covering assets of the Group Unit-linked assets Total
Financial assets and cash exposed to interest rate risk   82,838,239 1,625,086 84,463,325
Fixed interest debt instruments 35.1,35.2 ,35.3, 35.4 30,962,178 1,429,723 32,391,901
Floating interest debt instruments 35.1,35.2 ,35.3, 35.4 7,963,895 103,956 8,067,851
Loan receivables from clients 35.4 30,331,615 - 30,331,615
Term deposits with credit institutions 35.4 5,187,637 91,407 5,279,044
Loans 35.4 1,929,045 - 1,929,045
Cash 40 2,439,863 - 2,439,863
Buy sell-back transactions 35.4 3,132,740 - 3,132,740
Derivative instruments   891,266 - 891,266
Financial assets exposed to other price risk   3,671,814 3,541,002 7,212,816
Shares listed on the regulated market 35.2,35.3 2,984,125 519,322 3,503,447 1)
Participation units and certificates in investment funds 35.2 ,35.3 466,001 3,021,680 3,487,681 2)
Derivative instruments 35.3 221,688 - 221,688
Total   86,510,053 5,166,088 91,676,141

1) Difference of the values presented as equity instruments listed on the regulated market in Notes 35.2 and 35.3 amounting to PLN 19,153 thousand regards listed units and investment certificates in the line below.

2) Difference of the values presented as equity instruments not listed on the regulated market in the Notes 35.2 and 35.3 and amounting to PLN 33,700 47,374 thousand regards listed units and investment certificates (PLN 19,153 thousand) and non-listed equity instruments other than units and investment certificates not included in that item (PLN 52,853 thousand).

Carrying amount as at 31 December 2014 Note Risk covering assets of the Group Unit-linked assets Total
Financial assets and cash exposed to interest rate risk   48,991,002 1,557,038 50,548,040
Fixed interest debt instruments 35.1,35.2 ,35.3, 35.4 30,686,636 1,368,931 32,055,567
Floating interest debt instruments 35.1,35.2 ,35.3, 35.4 5,851,652 105,969 5,957,621
Term deposits with credit institutions 35.4 6,061,643 82,138 6,143,781
Loans 35.4 2,309,972 - 2,309,972
Cash 35.4 324,007 - 324,007
Buy sell-back transactions 40 3,250,173 - 3,250,173
Derivative instruments 35.4 506,919 - 506,919
Financial assets exposed to other price risk   3,110,178 3,422,151 6,532,329
Shares listed on the regulated market   2,831,054 532,352 3,363,406 1)
Participation units and certificates in investment funds 35.2,35.3 239,640 2,889,799 3,129,439 2)
Derivative instruments   39,484 - 39,484
Total    52,101,180 4,979,189 57,080,369

1) Difference of the values presented as equity instruments listed on the regulated market in notes 35.2 and 35.3 amounting to PLN 10,529 thousand regards listed units and investment certificates in the line below.

2) Difference of the values presented as equity instruments not listed on the regulated market in the notes 35.2 and 35.3 amounting to PLN 10,073 thousand regards listed units and investment certificates (PLN 10,529 thousand) and non-listed equity instruments other than units and investment certificates not included in that item (PLN 456 thousand).

As at 31 December 2015 there were no financial assets and liabilities held for sale.

Carrying amount of financial assets and cash held for sale Note 42 31 December 2014
Financial assets and cash exposed to interest rate risk   314,284
Fixed interest debt instruments   217,852
Term deposits with credit institutions   88,085
Cash   8,347
Financial assets exposed to other price risk   36,702
Shares listed on the regulated market   16,366
Participation units and certificates in investment funds   20,336
Total    350,986

In its investing activities PZU Group uses derivatives to manage various investment risks. Most of the aforesaid instruments reduce exposure to individual types of risks.

The table below presents PZU Group’s derivatives as at 31 December 2015 and 31 December 2014.

Interest rate derivatives Base amount by maturity as at 31 December 2015 Assets at fair value as at 31 December 2015 Liabilities at fair value as at 31 December 2015
  Up to 3 months Over 3 months and up to 1 year Over 1 year and up to 5 years Over 5 years Total    
Instruments presented as cash flows hedges – OTC, including: 100,000 6,060,000 4,635,000 - 10,795,000 139,578 -
- SWAP transactions 100,000 6,060,000 4,635,000 - 10,795,000 139,578 -
Instruments presented as held for trading, including: 4,539,937 9,150,822 41,305,044 8,479,530 63,475,333 751,688 846,515
Instruments listed on the regulated market, including: 413,148 1,236,454 411,090 - 2,060,692 - 20,362
- futures 413,148 1,236,454 411,090 - 2,060,692 - 20,362
OTC instruments, including: 4,126,789 7,914,368 40,893,954 8,479,530 61,414,641 751,688 826,153
- futures 2,449,411 162,123 6,543 - 2,618,077 22,168 19,905
- SWAP transactions 1,299,586 6,872,059 40,069,037 8,359,530 56,600,212 725,722 802,450
- call options 188,896 440,093 409,187 60,000 1,098,176 3,798 -
- put options 188,896 440,093 409,187 60,000 1,098,176 - 3,798
Total interest rate derivatives 4,639,937 15,210,822 45,940,044 8,479,530 74,270,333 891,266 846,515

Interest rate derivatives Base amount by maturity as at 31 December 2014 Assets at fair value as at 31 December 2014 Liabilities at fair value as at 31 December 2014
  Up to 3 months Over 3 months and up to 1 year Over 1 year and up to 5 years Over 5 years Total    
OTC instruments, including: 5,405,303 13,317,880 27,608,149 5,145,782 51,477,114 506,919 556,426
- futures 2,500,000 6,417,880 - - 8,917,880 7,203 5,735
- SWAP transactions 2,905,303 6,900,000 27,608,149 5,145,782 42,559,234 499,716 550,691
Total interest rate derivatives 5,405,303 13,317,880 27,608,149 5,145,782 51,477,114 506,919 556,426

Derivatives linked to currency exchange rates Base amount by maturity as at 31 December 2015 Assets at fair value as at 31 December 2015 Liabilities at fair value as at 31 December 2015
  Up to 3 months Over 3 months and up to 1 year Over 1 year and up to 5 years Over 5 years Total    
OTC instruments, including: 6,661,014 2,619,764 1,654 394 68,016 11,003,188 170,129 63,213
- futures 1,448,763 573,313 295,341 - 2,317,417 54,620 7,747
- SWAP transactions 4,892,809 1,622,877 1,235,293 68,016 7,818,995 106,385 46,339
- call options 159,721 211,787 61,880 - 433,388 9,124 -
- put options 159,721 211,787 61,880 - 433,388 - 9,127
Total derivatives linked to currency exchange rates 6,661,014 2,619,764 1,654,394 68,016 11,003,188 170,129 63,213

Derivatives linked to currency exchange rates Base amount by maturity as at 31 December 2014 Assets at fair value as at 31 December 2014 Liabilities at fair value as at 31 December 2014
  Up to 3 months Over 3 months and up to 1 year Over 1 year and up to 5 years Total    
Instruments listed on the regulated market, including: - 620,808 1,030,540 1,651,348 - 9,516
- futures - 620,808 1,030,540 1,651,348 - 9,516
OTC instruments, including: 3,899,010 175,360 - 4,074,370 14,975 48,266
- futures 1,292,039 - - 1,292,039 720 15,633
- SWAP transactions 2,606,971 - - 2,606,971 13,016 32,633
- call options - 87,680 - 87,680 994 -
- put options - 87,680 - 87,680 245 -
Total derivatives linked to currency exchange rates 3,899,010 796,168 1,030,540 5,725,718 14,975 57,782

Security price derivatives Base amount by maturity as at 31 December 2015 Assets at fair value as at 31 December 2015 Liabilities at fair value as at 31 December 2015
  Up to 3 months Over 3 months and up to 1 year Over 1 year and up to 5 years Over 5 years Total    
Instruments listed on the regulated market, including: 514 28,987 - - 29,501 131 -
- futures 514 - - - 514   -
- call options (sale) - 28,987 - - 28,987 131 -
OTC instruments, including: 119,893 736,339 384,091 3,177,910 4,418,233 51,428 30,756
- call options 119,893 385,223 384,091 1,588,955 2,478,162 51,428 -
- call options (sale) - 351,116 - 1,588,955 1,940,071 - 30,756
Total security price derivatives 120,407 765,326 384,091 3,177,910 4,447,734 51,559 30,756

Security price derivatives Base amount by maturity as at 31 December 2014 Assets at fair value as at 31 December 2014 Liabilities at fair value as at 31 December 2014
  Up to 3 months Over 3 months and up to 1 year Over 1 year and up to 5 years Total    
Instruments listed on the regulated market, including: - 734,930 1,030,540 1,765,470 1,843 9,516
- futures - 620,808 1,030,540 1,651,348 - 9,516
- call options - 114,122 - 114,122 1,843 -
OTC instruments, including: 215,110 102,539 365,732 683,381 22,666 2,120
- futures 153,443 - - 153,443 - 2,120
- call options 61,667 102,539 365,732 529,938 22,666 -
Total security price derivatives 215,110 837,469 1,396,272 2,448,851 24,509 11,636

Risk concentration

  31 December 2015 (PLN thousand ) 31 December 2015 (% of financial asset value) 31 December 2014 (PLN thousand ) 31 December 2014 (% of financial asset value)
Involvement in treasury instruments issued and guaranteed by the Polish State Treasury and buy-sell-back transactions on these instruments 32,996,823 36.7% 36,161,177 63.7%
PZU Group's involvement in shares listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange 4,896,218 5.4% 2,713,587 4.8%
Involvement in assets related to one bank (PKO Bank Polski SA - bank deposits, debt instruments and shares of that bank) 2,231,099 2.5% 1,953,044 3.4%
General involvement bank assets - bank deposits, debt instruments issued by banks, shares of banks and derivative transactions concluded with banks 14,431,537 16.1% 13,201,504 23.3%
Involvement in financial assets denominated in Polish zloty 79,906,781 88.9% 52,678,740 92.8%

Exposure to debt instruments issued by treasuries other than the Polish Treasury, companies and local government authorities

Table below present the exposure of the PZU Group entities to bonds issued by treasuries other than the Polish Treasury, companies and local government authorities. Financial instruments classified as held to maturity as well as loans and receivables have been presented as measured at amortized cost, while financial instruments classified as available for sale and measured at fair value through profit or loss (both classified as such upon initial recognition and held for trading) have been presented as measured at fair value.

Debt instruments issued by treasuries other than the Polish Treasury

As at 31 December 2015 Currency Reclassification to portfolio Cost Carrying amount Fair value Impairment loss
Bulgaria EUR at fair value 24,715 25,664 25,664 -
Bulgaria EUR at amortized cost 15,361 15,495 15,465 -
Croatia EUR at amortized cost 16,910 17,023 16,806 -
Croatia USD at fair value 6,092 8,336 8,336 -
Czech Republic CZK at fair value 105,555 105,591 105,591 -
Spain EUR at fair value 78,536 76,260 76,260 -
Ireland EUR at fair value 6,878 6,827 6,827 -
Ireland EUR at amortized cost 7,433 7,547 7,800 -
Iceland USD at fair value 7,420 10,249 10,249 -
Lithuania EUR at fair value 374,017 400,777 400,777 -
Lithuania EUR at amortized cost 137,041 139,542 141,846 -
Lithuania USD at fair value 4,934 6,944 6,944 -
Latvia EUR at fair value 55,953 59,991 59,991 -
Latvia EUR at amortized cost 19,024 19,433 19,065 -
Latvia USD at fair value 31,236 40,191 40,191 -
Germany EUR at fair value 849,833 841,102 841,102 -
Portugal EUR at fair value 80,361 78,194 78,194 -
Romania EUR at fair value 91,315 101,171 101,171 -
Romania EUR at amortized cost 27,179 27,199 27,418 -
Romania RON at fair value 78,063 78,455 78,455 -
Romania USD at fair value 15,631 22,453 22,453 -
Sri Lanka USD at fair value 24,775 23,250 23,250 -
Turkey USD at fair value 99,310 103,164 103,164 -
Ukraine UAH at fair value 12,509 1) 9,955 1) 9,955 1) -
Ukraine UAH at amortized cost 13,512,1) 11,256,1) 11,322,1) -
Ukraine USD at fair value 3,710 3,645 3,645 -
Ukraine USD at amortized cost 1,518 1,965 2,071 -
Hungary EUR at fair value 111,052 115,176 115,176 -
Hungary EUR at amortized cost 12,642 12,935 13,074 -
Hungary HUF at fair value 157,196 156,924 156,924 -
Hungary USD at fair value 7,801 10,718 10,718 -
United States of America USD at fair value 160,062 155,685 155,685 -
other EUR/USD at fair value 63,343 63,526 63,526 -
other EUR at amortized cost 7,990 8,226 8,297 -
Total     2,708,907 2,764,869 2,767,412 -

1) For these bonds, the principal amount is repaid annually in a fixed amount of UAH 100 (i.e. 10% of the bond nominal value). The cost reveals the actual price paid by the company and does not include the repayments of the principal amount.

As at 31 December 2014 Currency Valuation method Cost Carrying amount Fair value Impairment loss
Bulgaria EUR at fair value 12,589 13,941 13,941 -
Croatia USD at fair value 13,489 15,555 15,555 -
Croatia EUR at amortized cost 2,418 2,447 2,478 -
Cyprus EUR at fair value 20,663 21,585 21,585 -
Iceland USD at fair value 24,745 29,246 29,246 -
Lithuania EUR at fair value 61,935 68,565 68,565 -
Lithuania LTL at fair value 436,696 458,145 458,145 -
Lithuania USD at fair value 14,178 17,113 17,113 -
Lithuania EUR at amortized cost 12,964 14,050 15,380 -
Lithuania LTL at amortized cost 14,857 15,196 15,786 -
Latvia EUR at fair value 66,277 70,051 70,051 -
Latvia USD at fair value 31,236 35,048 35,048 -
Latvia EUR at amortized cost 1,631 1,679 1,781 -
Romania EUR at fair value 143,607 156,896 156,896 -
Romania RON at fair value 48,545 50,882 50,882 -
Romania USD at fair value 15,631 20,436 20,436 -
Turkey USD at fair value 449 477 477 -
Ukraine USD at fair value 1,458 1,663 1,663 -
Ukraine UAH at fair value 10,183 1) 9,343 1) 9,343 1) -
Ukraine UAH at amortized cost 25,181 1) 9,231 1) 9,196 1) -
Ukraine USD at amortized cost 23,692 25,916 25,785 -
Hungary EUR at fair value 17,308 20,230 20,230 -
Hungary HUF at fair value 160,882 163,499 163,499 -
Hungary USD at fair value 7,801 9,456 9,456 -
Hungary EUR at amortized cost 570 655 721 -
other EUR/USD at fair value 53,492 59,279 59,279 -
Total     1,222,477 1,290,584 1,292,537 -

1) For these bonds, the principal amount is repaid annually in a fixed amount of UAH 100 (i.e. 10% of the bond nominal value). The cost reveals the actual price paid by the company and does not include the repayments of the principal amount.

All debt securities issued by governments other than the government of the Republic of Poland, which have been measured at fair value or for which the fair value has been disclosed (classified as held to maturity) are included in Level I of the fair value hierarchy.

Debt instruments issued by companies and local government authorities.

As at 31 December 2015 Valuation method Cost Carrying amount Fair value Impairment loss
WIG index companies – Banks at fair value 322,868 325,778 325,778 -
  at amortized cost 1,520,556 1,534,875 1,564,538 -
WIG index companies – Fuels at fair value 304,464 309,115 309,115 -
  at amortized cost 700,000 700,686 710,287 -
WIG index companies – Chemical index at amortized cost 5,795 5,857 5,872 -
WIG index companies – Energy at amortized cost 315,000 316,322 312,776 -
Not listed domestic banks at amortized cost 20,000 20,250 22,132 -
Mortgage banks at fair value 41,983 43,179 43,179 -
Foreign banks at fair value 3,710 3,876 3,876 -
  at amortized cost 71,985 73,999 76,542 1,142
Local governments at fair value 45,632 56,592 56,592 -
  at amortized cost 50,000 52,501 59,467 -
WIG index companies – Raw materials at fair value 51,200 51,367 51,367 -
  at amortized cost 195,000 151,069 151,139 42,836
Other – impaired at fair value 367,487 342,047 342,047 11,630
  at amortized cost 86,120 87,515 87,466 -
Total   4,101,800 4,075,028 4,122,173 55,608

As at 31 December 2014 Valuation method Cost Carrying amount Fair value Impairment loss
WIG index companies – Banks at fair value 184,224 190,676 190,676 -
  at amortized cost 1,616,283 1,630,862 1,711,036 -
WIG index companies – Fuels at fair value 303,226 314,558 314,558 -
  at amortized cost 700,000 700,746 715,642 -
WIG index companies – Chemical index at amortized cost 1,211 1,236 1,229 -
WIG index companies – Energy at amortized cost 400,000 401,778 399,721 -
Not listed domestic banks at amortized cost 20,000 20,271 23,594 -
Foreign banks at fair value 23,600 24,081 24,081 -
  at amortized cost 76,359 77,813 82,944 -
Mortgage banks at fair value 41,983 42,623 42,623 -
Local governments at fair value 45,632 58,608 58,608 -
  at amortized cost 50,000 52,504 60,884 -
Other at fair value 38,427 38,942 38,942 -
  at amortized cost 62,751 63,760 64,409 -
WIG index companies – Raw materials – written down at amortized cost 200,000 193,142 201,339 10,144
Other – impaired at fair value 11,630 - - 11,630
Other foreign banks – impaired at amortized cost 1,142 - - 1,142
Total   3,776,468 3,811,600 3,930,288 22,916

8.5.2.1 Interest rate risk

The following table presents sensitivity tests of the non-unit-linked financial assets portfolio of PZU Group.

Change in portfolio value 31 December 2015 31 December 2014
  Effect on net financial profit/loss Effect on equity Effect on net financial profit/loss Effect on equity
Market interest rate drop by 100 bp 601,366 148,659 125,668 223,086
Market interest rate increase by 100 bp (548,302) (142,455) (138,436) (219,307)

The above sensitivity tests do not include effects of changes in interest rates for presented insurance, investment contract liabilities nor Alior Bank receivables from clients. Analysis of effects of a change in technical rate on measurement of insurance and investment contracts is presented in item 8.5.1.

The interest rate risk related to Alior Bank’s liabilities to clients is linked, first of all, to:

  • risk of revaluation dates mismatch;
  • base risk, e.g. the influence of uneven change in reference indexes with a similar revaluation date on the profit or loss;
  • modelling the accounts with indefinite maturity date and interest rate determined for e.g. current deposits;
  • influence of the non-interest items (e.g. equity, fixed assets).

One of the methods of calculating the exposure to interest rate risk is setting the BPV, which determines the estimated change in measurement of a given transaction/item due to a parallel shift of a yield curve by 1 bp. The estimation of BPV for Alior Bank as at 31 December 2015 has been presented below:

Currency Up to 6 months 6 months – 1 year 1 year – 3 years 3-5 years 5-10 years Total
PLN (192.3) 17.3 369.8 (140.0) 30.3 85.2
EUR (19.1) (16.2) (19.7) (13.8) (6.6) (75.4)
USD 6.1 11.3 (6.2) (6.8) (0.4) 4.0
CHF 0.4 (0.1) (1.4) 00.0 00.0 (1.1)
GBP 0.6 1.7 0.1 00.0 00.0 2.5
Other (0.5) (1.6) 00.0 00.0 00.0 (2.1)
Total (204.8) 12.5 342.6 (160.6) 23.4 13.1

In order to estimate the level of interest rate risk, Alior Bank applies the Value at Risk (VaR) model. 99% VaR with the horizon of 10 days calculated as at 31 December 2015 for the banking records amounted to PLN 6,361 thousand. The banking operations for the interest rate risk management covers instruments (other than acquired for trade), loans, deposits, credits and derivative transactions aimed at hedging the risk of these operations. Alior Bank analyzes the scenarios in terms of i.a. the influence of change in interest rates on the future interest result and economic value of the capital. As a part of these scenarios the internal limits are maintained, whose utlization is measured daily. The use of the limit of change in economic value of capital with the parallel shift of the percentage curve by +/- 200 bps and non-parallel shifts with the scenarios of +/- 100/400 bps (in tenors of 1M/10Y, between them a linear interpolation of the shift) as at 31 December 2015 is presented in the following table:

Scenario (1M/10Y) Change in economic value of capital
+400 / +100 (170,383)
+100 / +400 (75,552)
+200 / +200 (99,421)
- 200 / - 200 79,039
- 100 / - 400 65,379
- 400 / - 100 78,498

8.5.2.2 Currency risk

Degree of risk exposure

Information regarding exposure to currency risk by class of financial instruments is presented in Note 39.

The following table presents sensitivity tests of the non-unit-linked financial assets portfolio of PZU Group.

Change in portfolio value 31 December 2015 31 December 2014
  Effect on net financial profit/loss Effect on equity Effect on net financial profit/loss Effect on equity
20% increase in FX to PLN rates 88,958 15,317 6,052 118,583
20% decrease in FX to PLN rates (88,958) 1) (15,317) 1) (6,052) (118,583)

1) With assumption of decrease by 80% in exchange rates of UAH against PLN (while retaining 20% decrease for other currencies) the negative influence on financial result and equity would amount to, respectively: PLN 46,550,000 and PLN 159,081,000.

Financial assets exposed to FX risk include deposit transactions and debt instruments that hedge outlays for technical provisions denominated in foreign currencies, exposure to equity instruments listed at stock exchanges other than WSE, participation units and investment certificates of investment funds, to derivatives denominated in foreign currencies, as well as financial assets of foreign companies included in consolidation.

In order to measure currency risk, Alior Bank applies a Value at Risk model which means a potential loss of value on the foreign exchange currency positions held, simultaneously maintaining the assumed confidence level and position holding period. To determine VaR, Alior Bank applies a variance and covariance method, maintaining a 99% confidence level. The value is determined daily for given areas responsible for risk taking and managing, separately and jointly. As at 31 December 2015, maximum loss on currency portfolio held by the Bank (managed under a business accounting book), determined on the basis of VaR in a 10-day horizon, could amount to PLN 106 thousand, at the 99% confidence level assumed.

8.5.2.3 Share price risk

Degree of risk exposure

The value of available for sale and measured at fair value through profit or loss instruments portfolio is presented in Note 35.2 and 35.3

Sensitivity analysis

The following table presents sensitivity tests of the non-unit-linked financial assets portfolio of PZU Group.

Change in portfolio value 31 December 2015 31 December 2014
  Effect on net financial profit/loss Effect on equity Effect on net financial profit/loss Effect on equity
increase in measurement of listed equity instruments by 20% 545,254 207,188 345,885 561,156
decrease in measurement of listed equity instruments by 20% (545,254) (207,188) (345,885) (561,156)

8.5.2.4 Liquidity risk

Financial liquidity risk of PZU Group may result from three types of events:

  • shortages of liquid funds in ongoing operations;
  • illiquidity of financial instruments;
  • a structural mismatch between the maturity of assets and liabilities.

In the liquidity risk management process, liquidity is controlled in the short, medium and long term, i.e.:

  • short-term liquidity – the balance of funds in the liquidity and currency portfolios is held as not greater than the limit defined. Furthermore, conditional sell-buy-back transactions are used in liquidity management;
  • medium-term liquidity – PZU and PZU Życie hold adequate liquid investments portfolios;
  • long-term liquidity and structural mismatch between the maturity of assets and liabilities – Asset Liability Management (ALM), i.e. matching of the structure of financial investments which cover technical provisions to the nature of such provisions is applied.

Another objective of the ALM process is to ensure the capability to pay claims and benefits within the shortest possible time also in unfavorable economic conditions. The level of liquidity risk is measured by estimating the shortages of cash required for liability payments. The estimate is made on the basis of a set of analyzes, including among others, a liquidity gap analysis (a mismatch of net cash flows), an analysis of the distribution of expenditures relating to operating activities and incurred over short periods as well as currency gap analysis.

The policy of liquidity risk management in Alior Bank involves maintaining the liquidity positions so that it is possible to meet payment liabilities at any time, with the available cash in hand, inflows from transactions with a given maturity date or with sale of the assets available for sale, whilst minimizing the costs of maintaining liquidity.

In order to manage Alior Bank’s liquidity, ratios and related to them limits of the following types of liquidity are used:

payment liquidity – the ability to finance assets and meet liabilities on time in the normal course of operations or in other circumstances which can be foreseen, with no need to incur loss. As a part of payment liquidity management, the emphasis is put on the immediate and current (up to 7 days) liquidity analysis;

  • short-term liquidity – the ability to meet all cash liabilities if the payment due date falls within 30 subsequent days;
  • medium-term liquidity – the ability to meet all liabilities if the maturity date falls within the period of up to 6 months;
  • long-term liquidity – monitoring the possibility of meeting all cash liabilities if the payment due date falls within the period of more than 12 months.

As a part of liquidity risk management, the analysis of the long-term maturity profile is made, which largely depends on the assumptions concerning the shaping of future cash flows related to the position of assets and liabilities. The assumptions take into account:

  • stability of liabilities with indefinite maturity dates (e.g. current accounts, deposit terminations and renewals, their level of concentration);
  • possibility to shorten the maturity date of certain items of assets (e.g. mortgages with an option of earlier repayment);
  • possibility to sale an item of assets (liquidity portfolio).

Degree of risk exposure

Future cash flows resulting from assets used as coverage of technical provisions have been presented as the nominal value of the projected future cash flows corresponding to the periods in which such cash flows are expected. As regards debt securities, loans and term deposits, all cash flows which are expected to occur by the date of redemption of such securities, withdrawal of investments or repayment of loans have been taken into consideration. Shares and participation units have been presented in the periods of their expected disposal or redemption.

For the purpose of the analysis the adjustments of cash flows presented in tables on following pages and engagement of PZU Group in investment funds (units and investment certificates) have not been consolidated. This means that they are presented as units and investment certificates rather than assets held by the funds. Such an attitude reflects the liquidity management perspective and ensures coverage of technical provisions with assets at the level of given companies, taking into account statutory limits for type concentration of those assets.

Non-life insurance

The table below presents the match between undiscounted cash flows related to technical provisions in non-life insurance and the assets used as their coverage.

Item Projected cash flows
  up to 3 months over 3 months and up to 6 months over 6 months and up to 1 year over 1 year and up to 5 years over 5 years
A. Projected net outflows resulting from insurance contracts concluded by the end of reporting year (I + II) (2,165,008) (1,506,727) (2,118,797) (5,314,198) (10,794,855)
I. Outflows (2,182,454) (1,516,853) (2,130,151) (5,342,773) (10,853,734)
II. Inflows 17,446 10,126 11,354 28,575 58,879
B. Inflows from assets covering technical provisions 2,361,268 1,617,615 2,108,827 6,158,922 11,869,752
I. Future inflows whose value is known as at the end of reporting year 1,964,880 999,235 627,170 4,742,265 6,188,827
- Treasury bonds 516,048 116,264 153,072 3,169,194 5,852,887
- Other debt securities 19,460 15,071 294,609 322,037 183,543
- Term deposits with credit institutions 792,907 640,279 - - -
- Loans 71,528 - 547 995,442 89,135
- Receivables 510,039 89,155 39,971 6,745 -
- Other 54,898 138,466 138,971 248,847 63,262
II. Future inflows whose value depends directly on market interest rates or other ratios and is unknown as at the end of reporting year 342,950 615,939 1,478,420 1,413,891 5,639,869
- Treasury bonds - - 302,510 61,346 359,331
- Other debt securities 762 - 12,471 17,632 43,205
- Loans - - - 34,598 -
- Shares listed on the regulated market - - - - -
- Shares not listed on the regulated market - - - - -
- Investment fund units 342,188 615,939 1,163,439 1,300,315 3,436,085
- Investment certificates - - - - 1,801,248
III. Inflows from other assets 53,438 2,441 3,237 2,766 41,056
C. Balance of projected cash flows (A + B) 196,260 110,888 (9,970) 844,724 1,074,897
D. Balance of accumulated cash flows 196,260 307,148 297,178 1,141,902 2,216,799

The projected net cash flows resulting from non-life insurance contracts concluded by the end of the financial year have been determined using statistical and actuarial mathematical methods, taking into account historical data. Inflows have been calculated on the basis of the gross premium. Outflows include all projected costs to be incurred by the insurance company in connection with insurance contracts concluded.

The duration gap is the measure of a mismatch between the maturity dates of assets (investments) and liabilities (technical provisions). The duration of investments in non-life insurance as at 31 December 2015 was 3.3 (2.9 as at 31 December 2014), whereas the duration of technical provisions as at 31 December 2015 was 5.3 (5.8 as at 31 December 2014).

Life insurance

The table below presents the match between cash flows from technical provisions and liabilities under investment contracts with guaranteed and fixed terms and conditions, and the assets associated with them. The table does not present cash flows relating to unit-linked insurance products and investment contracts.

Item Projected cash flows
up to 6 months over 6 months and up to 1 year over 1 year and up to 5 years over 5 year and up to 10 years over 10 year and up to 20 years over 20 years
A. Projected net outflows resulting from insurance and investment contracts concluded by the end of reporting year (I + II) -791,451 -221,366 -950,599 -1,297,562 -4,152,117 -5,995,992
I. Outflows -1,645,098 -1,043,553 -6,755,642 -6,886,259 -11,129,464 -9,691,369
II. Inflows 853,647 822,187 5,805,043 5,588,697 6,977,347 3,695,377
B. Inflows from assets covering technical provisions 2,600,370 851,129 5,572,275 7,864,938 4,113,273 5,942,597
I. Future inflows whose value is known as at  the end of reporting year  2,600,367 849,904 5,568,194 6,175,346 4,113,047 2,066,292
- Treasury bonds 1,898,822 637,233 4,977,294 6,097,443 4,113,047 2,066,292
- Other debt securities 6,152 2,766 151,503 18,261 - -
- Term deposits with credit institutions 695,372 209,884 166,529 57,535 - -
- Loans  21 21 272,868 2,107 - -
II. Future inflows whose value depends directly on market interest rates or other ratios and is unknown as at the end of reporting year 3 1,225 4,081 1,689,592 226 3,876,305
- Treasury bonds - 94 - - - -
- Other debt securities - 1,128 4,061 902 226 -
- Loans  3 3 20 20 - -
- Investment fund units - - - - - 3,876,305
- Investment certificates - - - 1,688,670 - -
III. Inflows from other assets - - - - - -
C. Balance of projected cash flows (A + B) 1,808,919 629,763 4,621,676 6,567,376 -38,844 -53,395
D. Balance of accumulated cash flows 1,808,919 2,438,682 7,060,358 13,627,734 13,588,890 13,535,495

The forecast of future claims and future net premiums in life insurance takes into account assumptions regarding mortality, accident and birth rates, the insured's resignation, projected claims and projected inflows from net premiums.

The duration gap is the measure of a mismatch between the maturity dates of assets (investments) and liabilities (technical provisions). The duration of investments in life insurance as at 31 December 2015 was 5.2 (4.9 as at 31 December 2014), whereas the duration of technical provisions as at 31 December 2015 was 19.4 (22.4 as at 31 December 2014).

Banking activity

The below table presents the analysis of maturity of Alior Bank assets and liabilities as per contractual dates. The amounts are expressed in PLN milion.

31 December 2015 1D 1M 3M 6M 1Y 2Y 5Y 10Y+ Total
Assets 7,249 519 937 1,314 2,893 4,449 8,469 14,174 40,003
Cash and Nostro 2,090 - - - - - - - 2,090
Receivables from banks - 122 - - - 184 - - 306
Receivables from clients 5,160 382 919 1,065 2,322 3,024 6,328 11,722 30,922
Securities - 15 17 249 570 1,241 2,141 633 4,867
Other assets - - - - - - - 1,819 1,819
Liabilities and equity (13,938) (6,780) (5,391) (4,881) (1,876) (1,534) (1,224) (4,378) (40,003)
Liabilities to banks (11) (804) - - - (203) (43) - (1,061)
Liabilities to clients (13,927) (5,098) (5,385) (4,622) (1,687) (621) (47) (17) (31,404)
Own issues - - (6) (259) (189) (710) (1,135) (847) (3,145)
Equity - - - - - - - (3,514) (3,514)
Other liabilities - (878) - - - - - - (878)
Balance-sheet gap (6,689) (6,262) (4,454) (3,567) 1,017 2,915 7,244 9,795 -
Accumulated balance-sheet gap (6,689) (12,951) (17,405) (20,972) (19,955) (17,040) (9,795) -  
Derivative instruments - inflows - 2,455 763 536 1,722 1,108 407 60 7,052
Derivative instruments - outflows - (2,428) (753) (551) (1,721) (1,087) (404) (59) (7,002)
Derivative instruments - net - 27 10 (15) 2 22 3 1 50
Guarantee and financial lines 8,639 3 9 37 134 98 2 20 8,942
Off-Balance-sheet gap 8,639 30 19 22 136 120 5 21 8,991
Total gap 1,950 (6,232) (4,435) (3,545) 1,153 3,035 7,249 9,817 8,991
Total accumulated gap 1,950 (4,283) (8,718) (12,263) (11,110) (8,075) (826) 8,991  

Additionally, Alior Bank carries out liquidity stress tests, prepares a plan to raise funds in emergency situations, and determines and verifies the rules for the sale of liquid assets, taking into account the cost of maintaining liquidity. In accordance with the resolution of the PFSA, Alior Bank determines:

  • a short-term liquidity gap (minimal current excess liquidity) defined as the difference between the sum of primary and supplementary value of liquidity reserves on the reporting day and the value of unstable external funds. As of 31 December 2015, the value of the excess liquidity was PLN 1,880 million.
  • the non-liquid funds to own funds cover ratio, calculated as the ratio of bank's own funds less the aggregate value of capital requirements for market risk, delivery settlement risk, and counterparty risk to non-liquid assets. As of 31 December 2015, the value of the ratio was 4.72;
  • non-liquid and limited liquidity assets to own funds and stable external funds ratio, calculated as the quotient of the total of own funds, less the total value of the capital requirements for market risk, delivery settlement risk, counterparty risk and stable external funds to the sum of non-liquid assets and limited liquidity assets. As of 31 December 2015, the value of the ratio was 1.11;
  • a short-term liquidity ratio, defined as the ratio of the sum of primary and supplementary liquidity reserves on the reporting day to the value of unstable external funds. As of 31 December 2015, the value of the ratio was 1.53.

Alior Bank conducts also an in-depth analysis of the stability and structure of the funding sources, including the core and concentration level of term deposits and current accounts. Additionally, it monitors the variability of the balance sheet and off-balance sheet items, in particular the values of the expected outflows arising from the guarantees granted to its customers.

8.5.3 Credit risk and concentration risk

Credit risk – a risk of a loss or an unfavorable change in the financial position, resulting from changes in the creditworthiness of issuers of securities, business partners and any debtors.

Credit risk in PZU Group includes:

  • credit spread risk – the possibility of incurring losses due to changes in the value of assets, liabilities and financial instruments arising from changes in the level of credit spreads with regard to the time structure instruments issued by the State Treasury or their volatility;
  • counterparty default risk – the risk of losses due to a counterparties' and debtors' failure to meet their obligations;
  • credit risk in banking activity - credit risk that results from operations in the banking sector which is related mainly with the risk of a borrower or debtor’s failure to meet his/her obligations;
  • credit risk in financial insurance – credit risk arising from activity in the financial insurance sector, related primarily to the danger of the customer’s company, the debtor's or the borrower's failure to meet obligations towards a third party; this risk may result from unsuccessful venture implementation or the economic environment's unfavorable impact.

Concentration risk – a risk arising from lack of diversification in the portfolio of assets or from high exposure to counterparty risk including a single issuer of securities or a group of related issuers.

Exposure to credit risk in PZU Group arises directly from investment, financial insurance and guarantee, reinsurance and bancassurance related activities. PZU Group distinguishes the following types of credit risk exposure:

  • bankruptcy of an issuer of financial instruments (e.g. corporate bonds) in which PZU Group invests, or which it trades, e.g. corporate bonds;
  • risk of a contractor’s failure to meet its obligations, e.g. reinsurance or OTC derivatives, as well as bancassurance activities;
  • risk of a PZU Group customer’s failure to meet its obligations to a third party, e.g. insurance of monetary receivables, insurance guarantees;
  • risk of customer's failure to meet its obligations to PZU Group from contracted credits or loans (in banking activity)

Banking activity

Concentration risk

Each month, Alior Bank analyzes the concentration of the deposit base, which aims to identify the potential risks of excessive dependence on funding sources characterized by a low degree of diversification. In order to estimate the concentration level, the Bank sets a high concentration indicator by calculating the ratio of the funds accumulated by the largest depositaries to the value of the deposit base. As of 31 December 2015, the ratio was 2.22%, which indicates a lack of concentration.

In order to reduce the concentration risk, Alior Bank diversifies its structure of the deposit base, dividing its clients into retail, business, financial, central and local government institutions, and monitors the monthly share of each of these groups in the total deposit base.

The management of concentration risk arising from lending activities concerns the risks arising from, among other things:

  • exposures to individual entities or entities related by capital or management;
  • exposures to entities in the same industry, economic sector, carrying out the same business activity or trading in similar products;
  • exposures to entities from the same voivodeship, as well as from the same countries or groups of countries;
  • exposures secured by the same kind of collateral or secured by the same collateral provider (including the risks arising from collaterals established on securities with similar characteristics);
  • exposures in the same currency;
  • exposures to entities referred to in Article 71 of the Polish Banking Act;
  • product data sheet;
  • customer segment;
  • distribution channel;
  • special offers and promotions;
  • internal concentration.

In order to prevent adverse events resulting from excessive concentration, Alior Bank reduces concentration risk by setting limits and using concentration standards, both the ones arising from external regulations and the ones that were adopted internally. These include i.a.:

  • principles for identifying credit concentration risk areas;
  • a process for determining and updating the concentration limits;
  • a process for managing the limits, including the manner of proceeding if the permitted limit level is exceeded;
  • a process for monitoring concentration risk;
  • control of the process of concentration risk management.

The following table shows the industry concentration of Alior Bank's balance sheet and off-balance sheet exposures, divided by sections of the Polish Classification of Activity (PKD), which takes into account:

  • the credit amount (balance sheet and off-balance sheet exposures without interest, fees and write-offs), decreased by the value of the paid cash deposits;
  • unauthorized overdrafts in current accounts;
  • the treasury limits decreased by the value of the paid deposits, including debt securities whose issuer is an entity of the given section.

Section name as per Classification of Business Activities in Poland 31 December 2015
Industrial processing 4,275,844
Construction 3,707,790
Wholesale and retail, repair of motor vehicles, including motorcycles 3,433,278
Real estate activities 3,379,837
Production and distribution of electricity,  gas, steam and air conditioning 1,889,519
Accommodation and food service activities 1,568,126
Financial and insurance activity 1,178,549
Other 3,697,167
Total 23,130,110

The following factors are taken into account during the process of setting and updating concentration limits:

  • reliable economic and market information related to each of the exposure concentration areas, in particular, macroeconomic ratios, industry ratios, and information on business trends, taking into account projections of the value of interest rates, foreign exchange rates, political risk analyses, ratings of governments and financial institutions;
  • reliable information on business position of entities, industries, branches, business sectors, overall economic information, including on the economic and political position of countries, and other information necessary to assess the concentration risk;
  • business and qualitative information relating to the management process within the entities to which the Bank is exposed, which leads to concentration risk;
  • interest rate risk, liquidity risk, operational risk and political risk related to the identified exposures, which may lead to an increase in concentration risk.

The Bank analyzes risk both on an individual and on a portfolio level. The actions taken by the Bank result in:

  • minimizing the credit risk of individual loans at a predetermined rate of return;
  • reducing the total credit risk resulting from owning a specific credit portfolio.

As part of the process of minimizing risk of individual exposures, the following factors are assessed whenever the Bank grants a loan or another credit product:

  • creditworthiness and credit rating of the exposure, taking into consideration, among other things, a detailed analysis of the sources of its repayment;
  • collateral, including verifying their formal, legal and economic status, taking into consideration, among other things, LTV (loan to value) adequacy.

In order to improve the risk control over individual exposures, Alior Bank regularly monitors its clients, taking appropriate mitigating actions in the event of identifying increased risk factors.

In terms of minimizing the level of credit risk arising from owning of a specific portfolio, the Bank:

  • determines and controls concentration limits;
  • monitors early warning signals;
  • regularly monitors the credit portfolio, controlling all material credit risk parameters;
  • regularly performs stress tests.

Risk assessment in the credit process

Credit products are granted in accordance with appropriate crediting methodologies depending on the client segment and product type. Client’s creditworthiness is assessed prior to issuing a decision on granting a credit product using a credit process support system and the following tools: Scoring or rating; external information (such databases as CBD DZ, CBD BR, BIK, BIG) and Alior Bank internal databases. Credit products are issued pursuant to applicable operating procedures that indicate appropriate activities to be performed as part of the credit process, as well as entities in charge and tools to be used.

Credit decisions are met in accordance with the currently applicable system of credit decision system (with competence levels adjusted to a risk level of a particular client or transaction).

In order to conduct regular assessment of credit risk taken and to mitigate potential losses on credit exposures, the client’s situation is under monitoring during the crediting period. This is done by identifying early warning signals, as well as periodic, individual reviews of credit exposures.

The monitoring process is completed upon the issuance of a recommendation on the strategy of further cooperation with the client.

To minimize credit risk, a collateral is established; the collateral is adjusted to the credit risk incurred and flexible with respect to the situation of the client. The establishment of a collateral does not exempt from the duty to examine the client’s creditworthiness.

The aim of a credit collateral is to secure the return of a credit granted along with due interest and costs in the event when the borrower fails to settle its debt in the periods stipulated in a credit agreement, and when restructuring activities fail to bring anticipated effects. Accepted forms of collateral include: guarantees, sureties, bank account freezes, registered pledges, transfers of title, credit insurances, promissory notes, and mortgages. Subjects of a

collateral are verified as part of the credit process with respect to the legal possibilities of efficient collateral security; moreover, their market value is assessed, as well as their potential value to be recovered through the enforcement procedure. Due to collaterals it is possible to reduce the amount of impairment losses and provisions, as well as to apply more favorable risk weights to calculate capital requirements.

The value of collaterals considered when determining impairment losses with respect retail and business credits in 2015 amounted to PLN 994 million. In the case of credits for which no impairment was reported in 2015, it amounted to PLN 13,600 million. The impact of non-recognition of collateral value on the level of impairment losses as at 31 December 2015 would amount to PLN 124 million for impairment losses and PLN 97 million for IBNR respectively.

Credit scoring and rating

Credit scoring is a tool supporting credit decisions for individual clients and microenterprises, whereas credit rating is applied to the segment and small, medium-sized and large enterprises.

Scoring and rating models are under regular monitoring to check whether they operate correctly. The aim of the process is to conclude whether the applied models are able to properly diversify the risk, and whether estimated risk parameters accurately reflect appropriate risk aspects. Furthermore, as part of functional inspections also the correctness of application of those models in the credit process is verified.

Not overdue financial assets Risk class 31 December 2015
Receivables not overdue and without impairment    
Retail segment    
Mortgage loans, cash loans, Credit cards, overdraft in current and saving account
(1 – the best class, 6 – the worst class) 1 700,449
  2 691,423
  3 808,399
  4 887,246
  5 51,867
  6 6,851
Borrowings, cash loans, Credit cards, overdraft in current and saving account - standard procedure  
(K1 – the best class, K10 – the worst class) K1 341,778
  K2 426,684
  K3 795,538
  K4 1,084,859
  K5 1,227,531
  K6 1,034,654
  K7 561,920
  K8 201,861
  K9 40,719
  K10 3,809
Mortgage loans    
(M1 – the best class, M10 – the worst class) M1 2,818
  M2 21,767
  M3 103,571
  M4 381,809
  M5 935,591
  M6 1,254,284
  M7 940,449
  M8 613,014
  M9 233,637
  M10 54,473
No scoring   2,151,619
Total retail segment   15,558,620
Business segment    
Long-term products, Car loans, Limit in current account
(1 – the best class, 5 – the worst class) 1 7,785
  2 11,784
  3 16,478
  4 6,172
  5 -
Models for microenterprises which carry out abbreviated book-keeping and Models for entities which keep business accounting books, automotive dealers and developers  
(Q01 – the best class, Q25 – the worst class) Q01 21
  Q02 13,370
  Q03 195,015
  Q04 190,236
  Q05 17,095
  Q06 1,074,832
  Q07 402,377
  Q08 161,978
  Q09 1,038,925
  Q10 209,023
  Q11 1,293,114
  Q12 709,894
  Q13 521,595
  Q14 992,276
  Q15 355,544
  Q16 694,126
  Q17 674,844
  Q18 288,928
  Q19 626,156
  Q20 163,146
  Q21 89,767
  Q22 51,762
  Q23 71,686
  Q24 2,108
  Q25 44,906
No rating   687,318
Total business clients   10,612,261
Receivables not overdue and without impairment 26,170,881
Receivables not overdue and with recognized impairment 152,849
Retail segment   37,337
Business segment   115,512
Total not overdue receivables from clients 26,323,730

Credit risk monitoring in terms of individual and business clients

Continuous monitoring of timely service of credits and periodic reviews of financial and economic standing of clients and the value of adopted collaterals ensure constant protection of the credit portfolio. This process is applied to all credit exposures of individual and business clients.

Application of forbearance and related practices

The following tools are applied in the process of the client’s restructuring:

  • prolongation of the duration of the credit, as a result of which monthly principal and interest payments are reduced (the maximum duration is 120 months in the case of unsecured products);
  • granting a grace period for the repayment of a full installment or part thereof;
  • consolidation of several liabilities towards Alior Bank, including changing a personal overdraft into a credit to be repaid in installments.

In particularly justified situations, other tools may be used.

No limitations with respect to forbearance and related practices have been introduced to the process of restructuring of business clients. Given the specificity of our clients, the most commonly applied tools are:

  • agreement on the change in the schedule of mature exposures;
  • annex on the reduction of overdraft limit of open-end credits;
  • annex on the change in conditions of changing repayment date/installment value or grace period for principal amount/interest.

Monitoring the risk connected to forbearance and related practices

As to the application of tools such as forbearance, the following risks are identified:

  • risk of non-repayment or cessation of repayment;
  • risk of collaterals loss (movable property in particular) or significant decrease in value thereof;
  • bankruptcy risk.

Those risks are mitigated, among others, by conducting a client analysis in terms of its financial possibilities and the history of cooperation with the client, as well as field visits and other sources. Prior to the implementation of forbearance tools it is possible to execute collaterals and, as a consequence, significantly reduce the involvement. When forbearance tools are applied, the aim is to provide maximum collateralization of exposures (through mortgages, sureties and pledges).

Impairment assessment with respect to exposures covered by forbearance practices

In the case of exposures subject to forbearance practices, stricter criteria for identification of evidence of impairment are adopted. Regarding such exposures, besides the standard catalogue of evidence, additional criteria are applied which defined as the occurrence of one of the following situations upon taking a decision whether to grant a facility to a client:

  • delay longer than 30 days;
  • other impairment evidence;
  • analyst assessment of the threat of service timeliness (for individual clients);
  • determination that its economic and financial standing is substandard or worse (for business clients).

Impairment for those exposures is determined in the course of an individual scenario analysis based on historical behavior of similar clients and specific features of a given client.

As at the date of consolidating Alior Bank Group, the credit receivables of clients towards Alior Bank were measured at fair value. An analysis of involvement covered by forbearance presented in the table below was prepared based on the value credits measured at amortized costs, resulting from the consolidated financial statements of Alior Bank Group.

Credits granted to clients subject to forbearance 31 December 2015
Retail segment 100,422
without recognized impairment 50,279
with recognized impairment 79,575
IBNR 1) (212)
impairment losses (29,220)
assessed using the case-by-case method (16,672)
assessed using the portfolio method (12,548)
Business segment 255,597
without recognized impairment 131,887
with recognized impairment 230,518
IBNR 1) (26)
impairment losses (106,782)
assessed using the case-by-case method (90,487)
assessed using the portfolio method (16,295)
Total net receivables 356,019

1) Provision created for a group of exposures used to cover incurred and not reported losses. It is created for exposures for which individual evidence of impairment loss was not identified and which are grouped with respect to the homogeneity principle concerning risk profile.

Credits granted to clients subject to forbearance 31 December 2015
With recognized impairment 174,091
including value of collateral 124,648
Without recognized impairment 181,928
including value of collateral 97,742
not overdue 85,305
overdue 96,623
Total net receivables 356,019

Investment activity

The principles of credit risk management in PZU Group regarding risk arising from investing activities is regulated in a number of documents approved by the Supervisory Boards, the Management Boards and dedicated Committees.

Credit and concentration risk limits are set by dedicated Committees.

Limits for banks and other issuers of debt securities are determined based on the level of exposure. The exposure limits are regarded with reference to a single entity or capital group (both credit limits and concentration limits). Exceeding the limit results in an obligation to prepare and submit a plan to reduce exposure.

Credit risk assessment of an entity is based on internal credit ratings (rating approach differs depending on an entity type). Ratings are based on a quantitative and qualitative analysis and provide the basis for determining the limits. The ratings are updated for credit quality monitoring purposes.

Degree of credit risk exposure

The following table presents credit risk exposure of assets charged with credit risk in individual Fitch groups (in absence of these, Standard&Poors or Moody`s standards have been applied). The exposure to credit risk relating to repo transactions has been presented as an exposure towards the issuer.

Reports presenting assets exposed to credit risk do not include loan receivables from clients and insurance receivables. This was due to significant dispersion of the portfolio of assets, resulting, among others, in a significant share of receivables from small enterprises and retail customers who do not have ratings.

Assets exposed to credit risk as at 31 December 2015 Note AAA AA A BBB BB No rating Unit-linked assets Total
Debt instruments   996,787 7,583 33,389,390 2,930,295 1,005,990 596,027 1,533,680 40,459,752
- held to maturity 35.1 - - 17,146,791 137,859 79,058 6,418 - 17,370,126
- available for sale 35.2 519,011 - 5,830,345 384,648 94,046 317,700 - 7,145,750
- measured at fair value 35.3 477,776 7,583 10,208,680 422,146 530,646 32,758 1,533,680 13,213,269
- loans 35.4 - - 203,574 1,985,642 302,240 239,151 - 2,730,607
Deposits with credit institutions and buy sell-back transactions 35.4 - - 4,900,606 2,914,301 6,553 498,917 91,407 8,411,784
Other loans 35.4 - - 68,096 - 158,805 1,702,144 - 1,929,045
Derivative instruments 35.3 8.5.2 - 66,641 762,776 47,499 - 236,038 - 1,112,954
Reinsurers’ share in net claim provisions 31 - 353,232 310,385 534 - 93,446 - 757,597 1)
Reinsurance receivables 38 - 8,436 21,677 1,223 - 17,687 - 49,023
Total   996,787 435,892 39,452,930 5,893,852 1,171,348 3,144,259 1,625,087 52,720,155

1) including PLN 139,578 thousand of instruments presented as transactions hedging cash flows.

Assets exposed to credit risk as at 31 December 2014 Note AAA AA A BBB BB No rating Unit-linked assets Total
Debt instruments   - - 33,685,106 2,415,765 310,188 127,229 1,474,900 38,013,188
- held to maturity 35.1 - - 19,933,317 50,372 - - - 19,983,689
- available for sale 35.2 - - 2,141,329 261,139 - 32,397 - 2,434,865
- measured at fair value 35.3 - - 10,533,633 326,441 208,738 60,367 1,474,900 12,604,079
- loans 35.4 - - 1,076,827 1,777,813 101,450 34,465 - 2,990,555
Deposits with credit institutions and buy sell-back transactions 35.4 - - 7,195,733 1,746,022 - 370,061 82,138 9,393,954
Other loans 35.4 - - - - 256,763 2,053,209 - 2,309,972
Derivative instruments 35.3 574 14,725 516,252 3,073 - 11,779 - 546,403
Reinsurers’ share in net claim provisions 31 - 208,856 174,539 12,175 - 55,372 - 450,942
Reinsurance receivables 38 - 5,308 12,730 491 - 10,153 - 28,682
Assets held for sale   - - 305,937 - - - - 305,937
- Debt instruments 41 - - 217,852 - - - - 217,852
- Bank deposits 41 - - 88,085 - - - - 88,085
Total   574 228,889 41,890,297 4,177,526 566,951 2,627,803 1,557,038 51,049,078

The following table presents credit risk ratios used by PZU Group to calculate credit risk.

Standard&Poor’s ratings AAA AA A BBB BB No rating 1)
Ratio (%) for 2015 0.74 0.82 1.51 4.06 13.74 25.91
Ratio (%) for 2014 0.74 0.84 1.59 4.33 14.39 26.97

1) In the case of exposure to mortgages with no rating, the ratio of 2% was adopted corresponding to the lowest BBB+ investment rating.

The credit risk, to which PZU Group was exposed as at 31 December 2015 amounted to PLN 1,821,601 thousand (PLN 1,639,172 thousand as at 31 December 2014; after applying the coefficients of 31 December 2015, the risk would amount to PLN 1,562,795 thousand).

Risk related to financial insurance (i.a. credit insurance, surety insurance, guarantees) 

Credit risk related to the activities in the financial insurance and guarantee sector (mainly performance bonds and customs guarantees) results from the possibility that a customer defaults under an agreement with a third party.

As regards risks assumed by the Company, the risk appetite is determined by a relevant committee, which approves the threshold exposure to credit risk by exposure type, portfolio, product lines, local PZU offices as well as individual risks and the capital group.

A control function in terms of risk monitoring which is independent from the sales function is established at three levels:

  • level I – individual level – measurement of risk of financial insurance (i.a. underwriting);
  • level II – portfolio level – analysis of changes in the exposure value, level of claims related to the portfolio as well as analysis of concentration and exposure to one entity and capital group. Information about the level of risk in the portfolio is transferred and aggregated in order to monitor the overall exposure of PZU Group;
  • level III – relevant committee.

Degree of risk exposure

As at 31 December 2015, the maximum credit risk exposure relating to insurance guarantees and measured by the amount of sums insured was PLN 3,005 million (PLN 2,673 million as at 31 December 2014).

Reinsurance (from the credit risk perspective of the reinsurer) for insurance activity

PZU Group enters into proportional and non-proportional reinsurance contracts with the objective to reduce liabilities arising from its core business. Reinsurance is exposed to credit risk arising from reinsurers’ default on their obligations.

The assessment of reinsurers’ creditworthiness is conducted on the basis of market data, information obtained from external sources, e.g. S&P, as well as using an internal model. The model divides reinsurers into several groups, depending on the level of risk assessed. Only those entities whose risk is lower than the defined cut-off point are accepted. The acceptance process is not automatic and analyzes are supplemented with assessments conducted by reinsurance brokers. In the credit risk monitoring process, an entity’s model-based assessment is updated on a quarterly basis. Additionally, stress tests are carried out.

The tables below present the credit risk of reinsurers being parties to transactions concluded by the PZU Group entities.

Reinsurer Reinsurers’ share in (net) technical provisions as at 31 December 2015 Rating assigned by Standard&Poor’s as at 31 December 2015
Reinsurer 1 98,136 A+
Reinsurer 2 70,675 AA-
Reinsurer 3 64,998 AA-
Reinsurer 4 58,238 AA-
Reinsurer 5 48,182 no rating
Reinsurer 6 46,761 AA-
Reinsurer 7 39,635 AA-
Reinsurer 8 31,699 AA-
Reinsurer 9 27,09 AA
Reinsurer 10 23,444 A+
Reinsurer 11 22,064 A-
Reinsurer 12 21,457 A+
Reinsurer 13 20,764 AA-
Reinsurer 14 18,806 AA
Reinsurer 15 16,554 AA+
Reinsurer 16 15,923 A
Reinsurer 17 15,837 AA-
Reinsurer 18 14,868 no rating
Reinsurer 19 13,81 A
Reinsurer 20 12,265 A+
Others 1) 415,646  
Total  1,096,852  

1) "Others" includes reinsurers’ share in technical provisions whose carrying amounts are lower than those presented above.

Reinsurer Reinsurers’ share in (net) technical provisions as at 31 December 2014 Rating assigned by Standard&Poor’s as at 31 December 2014
Reinsurer 2 69,49 AA-
Reinsurer 6 50,938 AA-
Reinsurer 12 50,069 A+
Reinsurer 3 46,689 AA-
Reinsurer 7 45,389 AA-
Reinsurer 4 25,556 AA-
Reinsurer 8 20,969 A+
Reinsurer 13 19,689 A+
Reinsurer 11 16,185 BBB+
Reinsurer 18 15,355 no rating
Reinsurer 14 14,803 AA
Reinsurer 10 14,549 A+
Reinsurer 21 14,125 A+
Reinsurer 17 13,603 AA-
Reinsurer 22 12,349 A+
Reinsurer 15 11,126 AA+
Reinsurer 23 10,592 no rating
Reinsurer 24 10,369 AA+
Reinsurer 25 9,736 A
Reinsurer 26 9,183 no rating
Others 1) 292,215  
Total 2) 772,979  

1) "Others" includes reinsurers’ share in technical provisions whose carrying amounts are lower than those presented above.

2) PLN 753,115 thousand was reported in the consolidated statement of financial position in "Reinsurers’ share in technical provisions", and PLN 19,864 thousand was reported in "Assets held for sale". Additional information concerning assets held for sale has been presented in 42. 

8.5.4 Operational risk

Operational risk is a risk of loss resulting from incorrect or erroneous internal processes, human actions, operation of systems or external factors.

The objective of operational risk management is to optimize the level of operational risk and operating effectiveness in the PZU Group’s operations, leading to a reduction of losses and costs arising from such risks and ensuring adequate and effective control mechanisms. Operational risk management complies with defined guidelines which take into account external conditions and gathered information on the level of operational risk are reported to relevant internal authorities periodically.

8.5.5 Compliance risk

Compliance risk is a risk of legal sanctions, financial loss or loss of reputation or credibility resulting from failure to comply by the Company’s employees or entities acting on its behalf with the provisions of law, internal regulations and the adopted standards of conduct, including ethical standards.

Internal regulations impose a division of duties regarding ongoing and system management of non-compliance risk.

System management consists in particular of formulating solutions ensuring that the rules of compliance risk management are followed, monitoring compliance risk management and promoting and monitoring compliance of internal standards and approved compliance procedures.

Ongoing compliance risk management consists in identification, assessment and measurement, as well as ensuring satisfaction of regulatory requirements.